Paul Elliott vs Shamil Erdogan
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Shamil Erdogan79%
Paul Elliott 21%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Shamil Erdogan a 79% favorite over Paul Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Shamil Erdogan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1755 to 1597, a 158-point edge.
Shamil Erdogan enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Paul Elliott finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Erdogan 71%.
Paul Elliott and Shamil Erdogan share 1 common opponent: Ryugo Takeuchi.
Shamil Erdogan carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record13-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
76.4"Reach79"
246 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Shamil Erdogan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Paul Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1620
If they lose-9→ 1588
If they win+9→ 1764
If they lose-23→ 1732
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Paul ElliottShamil Erdogan