Paul Marghitas vs Sergio Mamone Jr
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Paul Marghitas57%
Sergio Mamone Jr 43%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Paul Marghitas a 57% favorite over Sergio Mamone Jr in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Paul Marghitas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1544 to 1524, a 20-point edge.
Paul Marghitas enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record1-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA LabTeamIron Monsta Factory
What's at stake
Paul Marghitas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Sergio Mamone Jr carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1567
If they lose-25→ 1519
If they win+25→ 1549
If they lose-23→ 1501
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1486 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Paul MarghitasSergio Mamone Jr