Paulo Costa vs Reinier de Ridder
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record22-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'4"
72"Reach 78"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
Reinier de Ridder is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Paulo Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1771
If they lose-15→ 1739
If they win+15→ 1785
If they lose-17→ 1753
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaReinier de Ridder
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa51%
Reinier de Ridder 49%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 51% favorite over Reinier de Ridder in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Reinier de Ridder's way (48%).
Reinier de Ridder holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1754, a 16-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Reinier de Ridder 86%.
Paulo Costa and Reinier de Ridder share 1 common opponent: Robert Whittaker.
Reinier de Ridder carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.