Paulo Costa vs Robert Whittaker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record27-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach73"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
If they win+12→ 1764
If they lose-12→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1753 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaRobert Whittaker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa60%
Robert Whittaker 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 60% favorite over Robert Whittaker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1754 vs 1752), separated by just 2 points.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Robert Whittaker 59%.
Paulo Costa and Robert Whittaker share 2 common opponents: Marvin Vettori and Israel Adesanya.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.