Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
72"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team BorrachaTeamRaty Team· 1670 avg Elo · 14 rated
What's at stake
Paulo Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Roman Kopylov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1768
If they lose-18→ 1736
If they win+18→ 1736
If they lose-14→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1747 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Paulo CostaRoman Kopylov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa68%
Roman Kopylov 32%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 68% favorite over Roman Kopylov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Paulo Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1718, a 36-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Roman Kopylov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Roman Kopylov 81%.
Roman Kopylov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.