Petr Yan vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-5-0Record20-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
67"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Archangel Michael Club· 1771 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamEagles MMA· 1815 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Petr Yan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Umar Nurmagomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1831
If they lose-13→ 1807
If they win+17→ 1819
If they lose-15→ 1787
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1778 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Petr YanUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Petr Yan54%
Umar Nurmagomedov 46%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Petr Yan a 54% favorite over Umar Nurmagomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Petr Yan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1820 to 1802, a 18-point edge.
Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Petr Yan finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Petr Yan and Umar Nurmagomedov share 4 common opponents: Merab Dvalishvili, Deiveson Figueiredo, Yadong Song and Cory Sandhagen.
Umar Nurmagomedov carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (4)
WinDecision (unanimous) · 2025
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2023
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2025