Phil Davis vs Wagner Prado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record18-8-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamBrazilian TKO· 1650 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Phil Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Wagner Prado carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1707
If they win+21→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1567 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Phil DavisWagner Prado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Phil Davis70%
Wagner Prado 30%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Phil Davis a 70% favorite over Wagner Prado in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Phil Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1599, a 124-point edge.
Phil Davis finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Wagner Prado 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.