Rafael dos Anjos vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-17-0Record30-16-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach74"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
RDA AcademyTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rafael dos Anjos carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1728
If they lose-9→ 1704
If they win+9→ 1797
If they lose-15→ 1773
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael dos AnjosRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robbie Lawler75%
Rafael dos Anjos 25%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 75% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1713, a 75-point edge.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael dos Anjos finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler share 1 common opponent: Bryan Barberena.
Robbie Lawler carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.