Rafael Natal vs Uriah Hall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-9-1Record17-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76,0"Reach79"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Uriah Hall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Natal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1686
If they lose-11→ 1662
If they win+11→ 1708
If they lose-13→ 1684
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael NatalUriah Hall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Uriah Hall69%
Rafael Natal 31%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Uriah Hall a 69% favorite over Rafael Natal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Uriah Hall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1673, a 24-point edge.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Uriah Hall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Uriah Hall 82%.
Uriah Hall carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.