Rafael Xavier vs Rasul Magomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-9-0Record9-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
78"Reach73"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Sayyato Performance GymTeamKHK MMA Team
What's at stake
Rasul Magomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Xavier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1599
If they lose-11→ 1567
If they win+11→ 1710
If they lose-21→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Rafael XavierRasul Magomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rasul Magomedov80%
Rafael Xavier 20%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Rasul Magomedov a 80% favorite over Rafael Xavier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Rasul Magomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1578, a 121-point edge.
Rasul Magomedov enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Rafael Xavier finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Rasul Magomedov 67%.
Rafael Xavier carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.