Rafael Xavier vs Rasul Magomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-9-0Record10-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
78"Reach73"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Sayyato Performance GymTeamKHK MMA Team· 1684 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Rasul Magomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Xavier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1622
If they lose-11→ 1590
If they win+11→ 1728
If they lose-21→ 1696
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1528 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rafael XavierRasul Magomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rasul Magomedov73%
Rafael Xavier 27%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Rasul Magomedov a 73% favorite over Rafael Xavier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Rasul Magomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1601, a 116-point edge.
Rasul Magomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Rafael Xavier finishes 87% of wins inside the distance, Rasul Magomedov 60%.
Rafael Xavier carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.