Ramsey Nijem vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-9-0Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height6'0"
TBDReach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Skrap PackTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Tony Ferguson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Ramsey Nijem carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1539
If they lose-10→ 1507
If they win+7→ 1666
If they lose-17→ 1642
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ramsey NijemTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson61%
Ramsey Nijem 39%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 61% favorite over Ramsey Nijem in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Tony Ferguson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1517, a 142-point edge.
Ramsey Nijem enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Ramsey Nijem finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Ramsey Nijem and Tony Ferguson share 1 common opponent: Beneil Dariush.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.