Randy Brown vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-8-0Record14-8-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height5'11"
78"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight186 lbs
Budokan Martial Arts AcademyTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Randy Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Warlley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1750
If they lose-16→ 1726
If they win+21→ 1646
If they lose-11→ 1614
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Randy BrownWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown82%
Warlley Alves 18%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 82% favorite over Warlley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Randy Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1625, a 117-point edge.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Randy Brown finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Randy Brown and Warlley Alves share 1 common opponent: Nicolas Dalby.
Randy Brown carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.