Raphael Mebenga vs Valentino Greco
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Valentino Greco53%
Raphael Mebenga 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Valentino Greco a 53% favorite over Raphael Mebenga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Raphael Mebenga's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1449 vs 1447), separated by just 2 points.
Raphael Mebenga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Valentino Greco enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
1-3-0Record1-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'0"
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1473
If they lose-24→ 1425
If they win+24→ 1471
If they lose-24→ 1423
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1511 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Raphael MebengaValentino Greco