Rasul Magomedov vs Sidney Outlaw
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Sidney Outlaw71%
Rasul Magomedov 29%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Sidney Outlaw a 71% favorite over Rasul Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Sidney Outlaw holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1666, a 77-point edge.
Sidney Outlaw enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Rasul Magomedov finishes 35% of wins inside the distance, Sidney Outlaw 52%.
Rasul Magomedov and Sidney Outlaw share 1 common opponent: Davi Ramos.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record23-6-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-Reach76"
171 lbsWeight155 lbs
AchillesTeamDante Rivera BJJ· 1673 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Sidney Outlaw is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Rasul Magomedov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1685
If they lose-13→ 1653
If they win+9→ 1752
If they lose-15→ 1728
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rasul MagomedovSidney Outlaw