Rasul Magomedov vs Trey Ogden
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Trey Ogden54%
Rasul Magomedov 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Ogden a 54% favorite over Rasul Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rasul Magomedov's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1666 vs 1666), separated by just 0 points.
Rasul Magomedov finishes 35% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record18-7-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
-Reach72"
171 lbsWeight155 lbs
AchillesTeamMarathon MMA· 1654 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Rasul MagomedovTrey Ogden