Combat Edge Intelligence

Raulian Paiva vs Sean O'Malley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-6-1Record20-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69"Reach72″
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Sean O'Malley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Raulian Paiva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Raulian PaivaNow 1648
If they win+23→ 1671
If they lose-9→ 1639
Sean O'MalleyNow 1815
If they win+9→ 1824
If they lose-23→ 1792

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1609 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
6.05
43%
Strike accuracy
61%
5.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.40
49%
Strike defense
60%
0.65
Takedown avg.
0.24
24%
Takedown accuracy
43%
77%
Takedown defense
61%
0.16
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Raulian PaivaSean O'Malley
165017001750180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (17%)
KO/TKO
13 (65%)
3 (13%)
Submission
1 (5%)
16 (70%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean O'Malley92%
Raulian Paiva 8%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean O'Malley a 92% favorite over Raulian Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Sean O'Malley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1648, a 167-point edge.

Sean O'Malley enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Raulian Paiva finishes 30% of wins inside the distance, Sean O'Malley 70%.

Sean O'Malley carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.