Renan Oliveira vs Tamirlan Ashakhanov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Renan Oliveira74%
Tamirlan Ashakhanov 26%Elo baseline: 70%
The Combat Edge model makes Renan Oliveira a 74% favorite over Tamirlan Ashakhanov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (70%).
Renan Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1539, a 148-point edge.
Renan Oliveira enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Renan Oliveira finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Tamirlan Ashakhanov 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record8-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach-
154 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tropa ThaiTeam
What's at stake
Renan Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tamirlan Ashakhanov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-22→ 1665
If they win+22→ 1561
If they lose-10→ 1529
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1531 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1534 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Renan OliveiraTamirlan Ashakhanov