Renato Moicano vs Tom Niinimaki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-7-1Record22-8-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'9"
72″ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight145 lbs
First Fight CenterTeamFinnfighters' Gym
What's at stake
Renato Moicano is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tom Niinimaki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1751
If they lose-16→ 1727
If they win+16→ 1642
If they lose-8→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Renato MoicanoTom Niinimaki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Renato Moicano84%
Tom Niinimaki 16%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Renato Moicano a 84% favorite over Tom Niinimaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Renato Moicano holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1743 to 1626, a 117-point edge.
Renato Moicano finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Tom Niinimaki 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.