Combat Edge Intelligence

Robbie Lawler vs Rory MacDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-16-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Rory MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+10→ 1798
If they lose-14→ 1774
Rory MacDonaldNow 1741
If they win+14→ 1755
If they lose-10→ 1731

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1760 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.85
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
47%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.80
59%
Strike defense
62%
0.65
Takedown avg.
1.77
64%
Takedown accuracy
48%
65%
Takedown defense
89%
0
Submission avg.
0.42

Trajectory

Robbie LawlerRory MacDonald
1750180020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

22 (73%)
KO/TKO
7 (30%)
1 (3%)
Submission
9 (39%)
7 (23%)
Decision
7 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rory MacDonald54%
Robbie Lawler 46%Elo baseline: 43%

The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 54% favorite over Robbie Lawler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Robbie Lawler's way (43%).

Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1741, a 47-point edge.

Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Robbie Lawler finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.

Rory MacDonald carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.