Combat Edge Intelligence

Ryan Gerena vs Stephen Regman

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

4-1-0Record10-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
-Reach78,0"
171 lbsWeight163 lbs
Vamos BJJTeamKiller B

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ryan GerenaNow 1584
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560
Stephen RegmanNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1566 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
1.41
TBD
Strike accuracy
60%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.93
TBD
Strike defense
24%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.52
TBD
Takedown accuracy
100%
TBD
Takedown defense
0%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ryan GerenaStephen Regman
1500155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (75%)
KO/TKO
7 (70%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (10%)
1 (25%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Gerena60%
Stephen Regman 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 60% favorite over Stephen Regman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1583), separated by just 1 points.

Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Ryan Gerena finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Regman 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.