Ryo Hirayama vs Taichi Nakajima
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Hirayama53%
Taichi Nakajima 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Hirayama a 53% favorite over Taichi Nakajima in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Taichi Nakajima's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1571 vs 1572), separated by just 1 points.
Ryo Hirayama finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Taichi Nakajima 47%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record20-15-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
X-Treme EbinaTeamJapan Top Team· 1629 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1595
If they lose-24→ 1547
If they win+12→ 1584
If they lose-12→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1517 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ryo HirayamaTaichi Nakajima