Combat Edge Intelligence

Sean Strickland vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-7-0Record18-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Sean Strickland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Sean StricklandNow 1823
If they win+7→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1806
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+17→ 1679
If they lose-7→ 1655

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1742 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.04
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
43%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
61%
Strike defense
61%
0.71
Takedown avg.
0
64%
Takedown accuracy
0%
77%
Takedown defense
71%
0.16
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Sean StricklandTom Breese
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (39%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
4 (13%)
Submission
12 (67%)
15 (48%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean Strickland87%
Tom Breese 13%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean Strickland a 87% favorite over Tom Breese in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Sean Strickland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1662, a 161-point edge.

Sean Strickland enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Sean Strickland finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.