Sergei Pavlovich vs Tai Tuivasa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-3-0Record14-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
84"Reach75"
260 lbsWeight265 lbs
Eagles MMATeamLions High Performance Centre
What's at stake
Sergei Pavlovich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tai Tuivasa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1817
If they lose-24→ 1785
If they win+24→ 1635
If they lose-8→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1730 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Sergei PavlovichTai Tuivasa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergei Pavlovich87%
Tai Tuivasa 13%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergei Pavlovich a 87% favorite over Tai Tuivasa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Sergei Pavlovich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1809 to 1611, a 198-point edge.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 7-fight loss streak.
Sergei Pavlovich finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Tai Tuivasa 93%.
Sergei Pavlovich and Tai Tuivasa share 4 common opponents: Tallison Teixeira, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov and Derrick Lewis.
Sergei Pavlovich carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.