Serghei Spivac vs Shamil Gaziev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-7-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach78"
256 lbsWeight261 lbs
Polar Bear TeamTeamKHK MMA Team· 1686 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Shamil Gaziev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Serghei Spivac carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1726
If they lose-15→ 1694
If they win+15→ 1744
If they lose-17→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1649 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Serghei SpivacShamil Gaziev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Serghei Spivac60%
Shamil Gaziev 40%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Serghei Spivac a 60% favorite over Shamil Gaziev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shamil Gaziev's way (47%).
Shamil Gaziev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1729 to 1709, a 20-point edge.
Serghei Spivac finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Shamil Gaziev 87%.
Serghei Spivac and Shamil Gaziev share 1 common opponent: Waldo Cortes-Acosta.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.