Combat Edge Intelligence

Shane Nelson vs Shaqueme Rock

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-7-0Record11-3-1
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
TBDReach73"
145 lbsWeight161 lbs
BJ Penn's MMATeamMonarchy MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Shane NelsonNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625
Shaqueme RockNow 1641
If they win+16→ 1657
If they lose-16→ 1625

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.38
Sig. strikes / min
2.93
31%
Strike accuracy
42%
2.84
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.40
61%
Strike defense
56%
1.31
Takedown avg.
1
18%
Takedown accuracy
11%
55%
Takedown defense
80%
1.64
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Shane NelsonShaqueme Rock
1650201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (31%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
3 (19%)
Submission
8 (73%)
8 (50%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Shaqueme Rock70%
Shane Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Shaqueme Rock a 70% favorite over Shane Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Shane Nelson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1641 vs 1641), separated by just 0 points.

Shaqueme Rock enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Shane Nelson finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Shaqueme Rock 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.