Combat Edge Intelligence

Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Steve Erceg
au

Steve Erceg

“Astro Boy”

14-4-0FlyweightUFC

1705 Good

Tale of the tape

14-4-0 Record 21-14-1
Flyweight Division Bantamweight
5'8" Height 5'7"
68" Reach 66"
125 lbs Weight 135 lbs
Wilkes Martial Arts Team Next Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Steve Erceg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Steve ErcegNow 1705
If they win+13→ 1718
If they lose-19→ 1686
Tim ElliottNow 1644
If they win+14→ 1658
If they lose-10→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Tracked stat edges

4.64
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
48%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.07
Strikes absorbed / min Lower is better
2.65
56%
Strike defense
58%
1.13
Takedown avg.
3.71
28%
Takedown accuracy
48%
67%
Takedown defense
59%
0.38
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Steve Erceg Tim Elliott
1600 1650 1700 2024 2025 2026

Win method breakdown

2 (14%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
6 (43%)
Submission
8 (38%)
6 (43%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Steve Erceg71%
Tim Elliott29%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Steve Erceg a 71% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Steve Erceg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1644, a 61-point edge.

Steve Erceg enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Steve Erceg finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Steve Erceg carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.