Combat Edge Intelligence

Tagir Ulanbekov vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-3-0Record21-14-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
70"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Eagles MMATeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Tagir Ulanbekov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Tagir UlanbekovNow 1740
If they win+12→ 1752
If they lose-20→ 1720
Tim ElliottNow 1644
If they win+15→ 1659
If they lose-9→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1642 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.37
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.36
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.65
52%
Strike defense
58%
2.94
Takedown avg.
3.71
39%
Takedown accuracy
48%
62%
Takedown defense
59%
1.56
Submission avg.
1.12

Trajectory

Tagir UlanbekovTim Elliott
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (6%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
8 (47%)
Submission
8 (38%)
8 (47%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Tagir Ulanbekov71%
Tim Elliott 29%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Tagir Ulanbekov a 71% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Tagir Ulanbekov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1644, a 96-point edge.

Tagir Ulanbekov finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Tagir Ulanbekov carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.