Thiago Alves vs Tim Means
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-15-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'2"
70,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1587
If they lose-9→ 1563
If they win+9→ 1655
If they lose-15→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Thiago AlvesTim Means
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tim Means60%
Thiago Alves 40%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Means a 60% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1572, a 74-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Thiago Alves and Tim Means share 2 common opponents: Laureano Staropoli and Max Griffin.
Tim Means carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.