Thiago Alves vs Tim Means
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Tim Means58%
Thiago Alves 42%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Tim Means a 58% favorite over Thiago Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Tim Means holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1645 to 1574, a 71-point edge.
Thiago Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Tim Means enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Alves finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Tim Means 76%.
Thiago Alves and Tim Means share 2 common opponents: Laureano Staropoli and Max Griffin.
Tim Means carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
23-15-0Record33-17-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'2"
70,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFit NHB
What's at stake
Tim Means is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Thiago Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1588
If they lose-10→ 1564
If they win+10→ 1655
If they lose-14→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Thiago AlvesTim Means