Thiago Moisés vs Trey Ogden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-10-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamMarathon MMA
What's at stake
Thiago Moisés is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Trey Ogden carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1670
If they win+17→ 1683
If they lose-15→ 1651
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Thiago MoisésTrey Ogden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés66%
Trey Ogden 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 66% favorite over Trey Ogden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Thiago Moisés holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1666, a 17-point edge.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Moisés finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.
Trey Ogden carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.