Trey Waters vs Trukon Carson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record6-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'5"Height5'11"
77"Reach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Ludus MMATeamGym-O
What's at stake
Trey Waters is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Trukon Carson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-20→ 1658
If they win+29→ 1627
If they lose-19→ 1579
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1587 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1475 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Trey WatersTrukon Carson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Waters60%
Trukon Carson 40%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Waters a 60% favorite over Trukon Carson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Trey Waters holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1678 to 1598, a 80-point edge.
Trukon Carson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Trey Waters finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Trukon Carson 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.