Dricus du Plessis has opened as a significant betting favorite over Kamaru Usman for their UFC Oklahoma City main event on July 18, 2026. Per BetOnline.ag, du Plessis is listed at -350, while Usman is a +285 underdog. The fight was officially announced for the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, per MMA Mania.

Du Plessis (23-3) has not fought since losing his UFC middleweight title to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319 in August 2025. The 32-year-old South African, ranked No. 1 in the Combat Edge Elo ratings at 1842, is looking to rebound and re-enter title contention.

Usman (21-4), a former UFC welterweight champion, is coming off a win over Joaquin Buckley at UFC Atlanta in June 2025. The 39-year-old Nigerian Nightmare, ranked No. 7 in the Combat Edge Elo ratings at 1822, is moving up in competition after a relatively inactive stretch.

The Numbers Behind the Line

The -350 line implies du Plessis has roughly a 77.8% chance to win, according to implied probability. This is a notable gap for a fight between two former champions, but the data supports the disparity.

Du Plessis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1842, compared to Usman's 1822. While Usman's three-year trend shows a decline from 1840 to 1822, du Plessis has improved from 1772 to 1842 over the same period. Age is also a factor: du Plessis is 32, in his physical prime, while Usman is 39 and has shown signs of slowing.

Both fighters are 6'0" with a 76-inch reach, so physical dimensions are a wash. The stylistic contrast is sharp: du Plessis is a pressure fighter with knockout power and relentless grappling, while Usman relies on wrestling control and cardio.

Combat Edge take

The betting line is fair but perhaps a touch wide. Du Plessis deserves favorite status given his age, momentum, and the fact that Usman is moving up in weight class competition after a long layoff. However, Usman's wrestling pedigree and experience in five-round fights cannot be dismissed. If Usman can avoid du Plessis's early pressure and drag the fight into deep waters, the +285 underdog line could offer value. But the data favors du Plessis's trajectory and power. This is a high-stakes crossroads bout for both men.

For more on the fighters, visit Dricus du Plessis and Kamaru Usman on Combat Edge.

Source: MMA Mania