Aaron Pico vs Arnold Allen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record21-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Arnold Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1729
If they lose-13→ 1697
If they win+10→ 1791
If they lose-14→ 1767
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PicoArnold Allen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arnold Allen79%
Aaron Pico 21%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Arnold Allen a 79% favorite over Aaron Pico in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Arnold Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1710, a 71-point edge.
Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Arnold Allen 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.