Combat Edge Intelligence

Aaron Pico vs Arnold Allen

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Arnold Allen
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Arnold Allen

“Almighty”

21-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1781Great

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record21-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTristar Gym

What's at stake

Arnold Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Aaron PicoNow 1700
If they win+20→ 1720
If they lose-12→ 1688
Arnold AllenNow 1781
If they win+9→ 1790
If they lose-15→ 1766

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1735 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

6.16
Sig. strikes / min
3.52
54%
Strike accuracy
44%
3.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.15
45%
Strike defense
60%
6.54
Takedown avg.
1.24
13%
Takedown accuracy
27%
0%
Takedown defense
73%
0
Submission avg.
0.28

Trajectory

Aaron PicoArnold Allen
1650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
7 (33%)
2 (14%)
Submission
4 (19%)
3 (21%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Arnold Allen64%
Aaron Pico 36%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Arnold Allen a 64% favorite over Aaron Pico in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Arnold Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1700, a 81-point edge.

Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Arnold Allen 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.