Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Arnold AllenAlmighty |21-4-0Arnold Allen vs Aaron PicoAaron Pico14-5-0

Arnold AllenAlmighty21-4-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

21-4-0Record14-5-0

32Age30

5'9"Height5'8"

70"Reach70"

145 lbsWeight155 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Aaron Pico14-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Arnold Allen owns a 71-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Arnold Allen and Aaron Pico across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Arnold AllenAaron Pico

Recent form

Arnold AllenW L W L L · -24 Elo last 5

WLWLL

Aaron PicoW L W W W · +49 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Arnold Allen1781+13 last move

Aaron Pico1710+21 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

42%Arnold Allen58%Aaron Pico

Model favoriteAaron Pico

Elo baseline40% for Aaron Pico

Matchup adjustment+18 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Aaron PicoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Aaron Pico is 58%, after Elo alone favored Arnold Allen at 60%.

Current Elo ratings1781 · 1710Arnold Allen leads by 71 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1736 · 1648Arnold Allen faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth25 · 19 fightsArnold Allen has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesArnold Allen 2 · 2 Aaron PicoStrongest available gap: Takedown defense toward Arnold Allen.

Stat advantages

Arnold AllenvsAaron Pico

Takedown defense

73%vs0%

Takedown average

1.24vs6.54

Takedown accuracy

27%vs13%

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.52vs6.16

Finishing profile

Arnold Allendecision leads 48% of wins

Aaron PicoKO/TKO leads 64% of wins

Common opponents

Movsar Evloev Arnold Allen: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Jan 20, 2024Aaron Pico: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jul 26, 2025

Tale of the tape

Arnold AllenAaron Pico

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.52Sig. strikes landed per min6.16

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

44Sig. strike accuracy54

UFC featherweight average : 46%

3.15Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.11

UFC featherweight average : 3.86

60Sig. strike defense45

UFC featherweight average : 54%

1.24Takedown average6.54

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

27Takedown accuracy13

UFC featherweight average : 30%

73Takedown defense0

UFC featherweight average : 56%

0.28Submission average0

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

7Wins by knockout9

4Wins by submission2

10Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout4

0Losses by submission1

4Losses by decision0

Arnold Allen vs Aaron Pico is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Arnold Allen enters with a 21-4-0 record and Aaron Pico enters with a 14-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.