Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record17-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamLamiro Fight Club
What's at stake
Losene Keita is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Aaron Pico carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1728
If they lose-14→ 1696
If they win+14→ 1770
If they lose-18→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Aaron PicoLosene Keita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Losene Keita58%
Aaron Pico 42%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Losene Keita a 58% favorite over Aaron Pico in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Losene Keita holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1710, a 46-point edge.
Aaron Pico finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Losene Keita 65%.
Losene Keita carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.