Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita

Oct 24, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast57%Aaron Pico43%Losene KeitaFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Aaron Pico14-5-0Aaron Pico vs Losene KeitaLosene KeitaBlack Panther |17-2-0

Aaron Pico14-5-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

14-5-0Record17-2-0

30Age28

5'8"Height5'9"

70"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight154 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Losene KeitaBlack Panther17-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Losene Keita owns a 46-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Aaron Pico and Losene Keita across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Aaron PicoLosene Keita

Recent form

Aaron PicoW L W W W · +48 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Losene KeitaW L W W W · +42 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Aaron Pico1710+21 last move

Losene Keita1756+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Aaron Pico#62 of 402 active Featherweight fighters · 1710 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Patricio Pitbull (rated 1811 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jeremy Kennedy (rated 1718 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +48 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #61 Pavel Andrusca, 0 ahead of #63 Josh O'Connor.

Losene Keita#18 of 402 active Featherweight fighters · 1756 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Niko Samsonidse (rated 1640 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mate Sanikidze (rated 1527 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +42 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #17 Mairon Santos, 1 ahead of #19 Brendan Loughnane.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

57%Aaron Pico43%Losene Keita

Model favoriteAaron Pico

Elo baseline43% for Aaron Pico

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Aaron PicoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Aaron Pico is 57%, after Elo alone favored Losene Keita at 57%.

Current Elo ratings1710 · 1756Losene Keita leads by 46 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1648 · 1616Aaron Pico faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth19 · 19 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesAaron Pico 2 · 2 Losene KeitaStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Aaron Pico.

What's at stake

Aaron PicoNow 1710 · #62 Featherweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1728

Loses by decision-14→ 1696

Losene KeitaNow 1756 · #18 Featherweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1770

Loses by decision-18→ 1738

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Aaron PicovsLosene Keita

Takedown average

6.54vs0

Takedown defense

0%vs100%

Sig. strikes landed per min

6.16vs3.91

Sig. strike defense

45%vs65%

Finishing profile

Aaron PicoKO/TKO leads 64% of wins

Losene KeitaKO/TKO leads 65% of wins

Common opponents

Patricio Pitbull Aaron Pico: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 11, 2026 Losene Keita: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Sep 6, 2025

Tale of the tape

Aaron PicoLosene Keita

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

6.16Sig. strikes landed per min3.91

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

54Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.11Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.97

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

45Sig. strike defense65

UFC lightweight average : 53%

6.54Takedown average0

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

13Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

0Takedown defense100

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

9Wins by knockout11

2Wins by submission0

3Wins by decision6

4Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Aaron Pico enters with a 14-5-0 record and Losene Keita enters with a 17-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.