Combat Edge Intelligence

Abus Magomedov vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-7-1Record17-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height5'11"
78"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs

What's at stake

Abus Magomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dustin Stoltzfus carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Abus MagomedovNow 1717
If they win+10→ 1727
If they lose-14→ 1703
Dustin StoltzfusNow 1660
If they win+14→ 1674
If they lose-10→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1683 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.06
Sig. strikes / min
3.30
49%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
56%
Strike defense
48%
2.50
Takedown avg.
2.08
0%
Takedown accuracy
10%
100%
Takedown defense
47%
0.58
Submission avg.
1.11

Trajectory

Abus MagomedovDustin Stoltzfus
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (48%)
KO/TKO
3 (19%)
8 (28%)
Submission
7 (44%)
7 (24%)
Decision
6 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Abus Magomedov63%
Dustin Stoltzfus 37%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Abus Magomedov a 63% favorite over Dustin Stoltzfus in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Abus Magomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1660, a 57-point edge.

Abus Magomedov finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Stoltzfus 63%.

Abus Magomedov and Dustin Stoltzfus share 1 common opponent: Brunno Ferreira.

Abus Magomedov carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinSubmission · 2024
Brunno Ferreira
LossKO/TKO · 2024