Adam Amado vs Toby Misech
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Toby Misech53%
Adam Amado 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Toby Misech a 53% favorite over Adam Amado in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Adam Amado's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1519 vs 1516), separated by just 3 points.
Adam Amado enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Toby Misech enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Adam Amado finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Toby Misech 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
4-4-0Record12-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
TBDHeight5'8"
TBDReachTBD
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1543
If they lose-24→ 1495
If they win+16→ 1532
If they lose-16→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1497 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adam AmadoToby Misech