Adam Soldaev vs Elves Brener
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Elves Brener63%
Adam Soldaev 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Elves Brener a 63% favorite over Adam Soldaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Adam Soldaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1676), separated by just 0 points.
Adam Soldaev finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Elves Brener 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record17-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach72"
146 lbsWeight155 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adam SoldaevElves Brener