Adam Soldaev vs Mateusz Makarowski
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Adam Soldaev74%
Mateusz Makarowski 26%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Adam Soldaev a 74% favorite over Mateusz Makarowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Adam Soldaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1676 to 1586, a 90-point edge.
Adam Soldaev finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mateusz Makarowski 79%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record14-8-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach72"
146 lbsWeight155 lbs
WCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamWCA Fight Team· 1601 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Adam Soldaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Mateusz Makarowski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1688
If they lose-20→ 1656
If they win+20→ 1606
If they lose-12→ 1574
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1584 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Adam SoldaevMateusz Makarowski