Mateusz Makarowski vs Adam Soldaev

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePodpromie Hall

BroadcastKSW TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on KSW TV.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 4:00 AM
Your time

Mateusz Makarowski14-7-1Mateusz Makarowski vs Adam SoldaevAdam SoldaevCzhonkur |10-3-0

Mateusz Makarowski14-7-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

14-7-1Record10-3-0

29Age29

5'10"Height5'8"

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight146 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Adam SoldaevCzhonkur10-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Adam Soldaev owns a 60-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Mateusz Makarowski and Adam Soldaev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mateusz MakarowskiAdam Soldaev

Recent form

Mateusz MakarowskiW W W L L · +2 Elo last 5

WWWLL

Adam SoldaevL W W W L · +19 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Elo edge

Mateusz Makarowski1600+21 last move

Adam Soldaev1660-21 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

24%Mateusz Makarowski76%Adam Soldaev

Model favoriteAdam Soldaev

Elo baseline59% for Adam Soldaev

Matchup adjustment+17 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Adam SoldaevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Adam Soldaev leads the full model at 76%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 18 points.

Current Elo ratings1600 · 1660Adam Soldaev leads by 60 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1496 · 1573Adam Soldaev faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 13 fightsMateusz Makarowski has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Mateusz MakarowskivsAdam Soldaev

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Mateusz MakarowskiKO/TKO leads 71% of wins

Adam SoldaevKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

Leo BrichtaMateusz Makarowski: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Nov 21, 2020Adam Soldaev: win · KO (Punch) · Jul 19, 2025

Tale of the tape

Mateusz MakarowskiAdam Soldaev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

10Wins by knockout6

1Wins by submission1

3Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout0

4Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision2

Mateusz Makarowski vs Adam Soldaev is a scheduled Lightweight fight on KSW 122 RZESZOW : YAKYMENKO VS MORELLI. Mateusz Makarowski enters with a 14-7-1 record and Adam Soldaev enters with a 10-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.