Agapito Orozco vs Chance Ikei
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Chance Ikei56%
Agapito Orozco 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Chance Ikei a 56% favorite over Agapito Orozco in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Agapito Orozco's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1628 vs 1627), separated by just 1 points.
Agapito Orozco enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Agapito Orozco finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Chance Ikei 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record7-1-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
130 lbsWeight126 lbs
Entram Gym· 1670 avg Elo · 14 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1652
If they lose-24→ 1604
If they win+24→ 1651
If they lose-24→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1480 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Agapito OrozcoChance Ikei