Ailín Pérez vs Bia Mesquita
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record8-0-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'2"
66"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The Goat Shed Academy· 1671 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Ailín Pérez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Bia Mesquita carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1725
If they lose-17→ 1693
If they win+25→ 1719
If they lose-23→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1546 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ailín PérezBia Mesquita
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ailín Pérez53%
Bia Mesquita 47%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Ailín Pérez a 53% favorite over Bia Mesquita in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Ailín Pérez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1694, a 16-point edge.
Ailín Pérez enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Bia Mesquita enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Ailín Pérez finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Bia Mesquita 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.