Combat Edge Intelligence

Ailín Pérez vs Karol Rosa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record19-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'7"
66"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
The Goat Shed AcademyTeamParana Vale Tudo

What's at stake

Ailín Pérez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Karol Rosa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ailín PérezNow 1694
If they win+14→ 1708
If they lose-18→ 1676
Karol RosaNow 1647
If they win+14→ 1661
If they lose-10→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1586 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1634 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
5.88
55%
Strike accuracy
56%
1.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.59
56%
Strike defense
50%
4.68
Takedown avg.
1.17
47%
Takedown accuracy
48%
67%
Takedown defense
70%
0.20
Submission avg.
0.17

Trajectory

Ailín PérezKarol Rosa
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (31%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (15%)
Submission
2 (11%)
7 (54%)
Decision
13 (68%)

Combat Edge model read

Ailín Pérez61%
Karol Rosa 39%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Ailín Pérez a 61% favorite over Karol Rosa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Ailín Pérez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1647, a 47-point edge.

Ailín Pérez enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Ailín Pérez finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Karol Rosa 32%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.