Combat Edge Intelligence

AJ Dobson vs Gilbert Urbina

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record8-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'3"
76"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Strong Style Fight TeamTeamBMF Ranch

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

AJ DobsonNow 1598
If they win+16→ 1614
If they lose-16→ 1582
Gilbert UrbinaNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.29
Sig. strikes / min
5.57
46%
Strike accuracy
57%
5.31
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.62
46%
Strike defense
45%
1.67
Takedown avg.
2.86
75%
Takedown accuracy
44%
65%
Takedown defense
0%
0.28
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

AJ DobsonGilbert Urbina
1600165020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (43%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
2 (29%)
Submission
2 (25%)
2 (29%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Gilbert Urbina62%
AJ Dobson 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Gilbert Urbina a 62% favorite over AJ Dobson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans AJ Dobson's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1598 vs 1597), separated by just 1 points.

AJ Dobson finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Urbina 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.