Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record8-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamBroz Martial Arts
What's at stake
Alessandro Costa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Stewart Nicoll carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1716
If they lose-21→ 1684
If they win+21→ 1612
If they lose-11→ 1580
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1620 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alessandro CostaStewart Nicoll
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alessandro Costa72%
Stewart Nicoll 28%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Alessandro Costa a 72% favorite over Stewart Nicoll in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Alessandro Costa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1705 to 1591, a 114-point edge.
Alessandro Costa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stewart Nicoll enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alessandro Costa finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Stewart Nicoll 88%.
Alessandro Costa and Stewart Nicoll share 1 common opponent: Alden Coria.
Alessandro Costa carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.