Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record24-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'4"
79"Reach80"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamCity Kickboxing
What's at stake
Alex Pereira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Israel Adesanya carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1802
If they lose-17→ 1770
If they win+13→ 1774
If they lose-11→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1804 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alex PereiraIsrael Adesanya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alex Pereira62%
Israel Adesanya 38%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Alex Pereira a 62% favorite over Israel Adesanya in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Alex Pereira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1787 to 1761, a 26-point edge.
Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Alex Pereira finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Israel Adesanya 67%.
Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya share 1 common opponent: Jan Błachowicz.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.