Alexa Grasso vs Katlyn Cerminara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record18-6-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'9"
66"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamTeam Renzo Gracie
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
If they win+12→ 1725
If they lose-12→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoKatlyn Cerminara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexa Grasso70%
Katlyn Cerminara 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexa Grasso a 70% favorite over Katlyn Cerminara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1715 vs 1713), separated by just 2 points.
Katlyn Cerminara enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Katlyn Cerminara 17%.
Alexa Grasso and Katlyn Cerminara share 3 common opponents: Maycee Barber, Valentina Shevchenko and Viviane Araujo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (3)
LossDecision (unanimous) · 2024
DrawDraw (split) · 2023
WinSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · 2023
LossTKO · 2020