Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-1Record12-1-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'5"Height5'5"
66"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Lobo Gym MMATeamMillennia MMA
What's at stake
Tatiana Suarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Alexa Grasso carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1733
If they lose-14→ 1701
If they win+14→ 1774
If they lose-18→ 1742
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexa GrassoTatiana Suarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tatiana Suarez60%
Alexa Grasso 40%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Tatiana Suarez a 60% favorite over Alexa Grasso in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Tatiana Suarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1760 to 1715, a 45-point edge.
Tatiana Suarez enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Alexa Grasso finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Tatiana Suarez 67%.
Alexa Grasso and Tatiana Suarez share 1 common opponent: Carla Esparza.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.