Alexander Hernandez vs Chris Gruetzemacher
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record15-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach68"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeam2 Knuckle Sports MMA Academy
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Chris Gruetzemacher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1739
If they lose-16→ 1715
If they win+21→ 1630
If they lose-11→ 1598
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1624 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezChris Gruetzemacher
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez89%
Chris Gruetzemacher 11%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 89% favorite over Chris Gruetzemacher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1731 to 1609, a 122-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Chris Gruetzemacher 67%.
Alexander Hernandez and Chris Gruetzemacher share 1 common opponent: Rafa García.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.