Alexander Hernandez vs Chris Gruetzemacher
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record15-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
72"Reach68"
148 lbsWeight155 lbs
Factory XTeam2 Knuckle Sports MMA Academy
What's at stake
Alexander Hernandez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Chris Gruetzemacher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1724
If they lose-16→ 1700
If they win+21→ 1629
If they lose-11→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1704 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezChris Gruetzemacher
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez79%
Chris Gruetzemacher 21%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 79% favorite over Chris Gruetzemacher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Alexander Hernandez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1716 to 1608, a 108-point edge.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Chris Gruetzemacher 67%.
Alexander Hernandez and Chris Gruetzemacher share 1 common opponent: Rafa García.
Alexander Hernandez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.