Alexander Hernandez vs George Staines
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Alexander Hernandez58%
George Staines 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Alexander Hernandez a 58% favorite over George Staines in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1731 vs 1731), separated by just 0 points.
George Staines enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Alexander Hernandez finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, George Staines 45%.
George Staines carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
19-9-0Record11-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
72"Reach74"
148 lbsWeight156 lbs
Factory XTeamHit Squad Hull
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
If they win+16→ 1747
If they lose-16→ 1715
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1709 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1558 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Alexander HernandezGeorge Staines